Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.
Rather than doing a writeup of Friday, I think the time I have at the moment would be better spent going over some conceptual market mechanics. As I mentioned in my previous post that covered some light analysis of the week, my first glance was that Friday was a low conviction, low volume day where momentum traders/and volatility arbitraging HFT algos were skirmishing, and a slightly deeper look tells me that's probably the case for almost the entire day, up to the last minutes before close.
There was a bit of a push toward the end of the day just to extract maximum interest charge pain. Keep in mind also that on Friday many of the retail brokerages still had issues with GME, and GME price was also protected from aggressive short-side attack due to the uptick rule.

Capital Flow, Liquid Float, and Price

Ok, so let's go with a diagram I put together while thinking about how to best answer a ton of questions related to the mechanics behind triggering a squeeze. This is not very formal--just conceptual to help you think about the relationship between price, liquid free float, and capital required to move things around.
Capital Flow to Price Volatility Leverage Conceptual Diagram
As you can see in the diagram, I figured it would be conceptually clearest to model the relationship kind of like a seesaw.
On the left you can see that people selling tends to increase liquid float, moving the fulcrum of our conceptual seesaw to the right, except in the case of selling to people who are planning to buy and hold, which moves the fulcrum to the left.
The lower the liquid free float, or the further to the left the fulcrum goes, the greater the likely impact of any particular capital flow (net selling or buying) on share price. Importantly, as the diagrams on the right half show, it's not a linear relationship. The closer the liquid free float comes to 0%, the faster the price volatility increases... theoretically approaching infinity as liquid free float approaches 0%.
I find it sometimes help to think of the extreme case to help clarify. On the extremely liquid side, if you have all of the tens of millions of GME shares in play, dropping $10,000 in to buy shares probably doesn't even register on the ticker. On the other extreme, if what if there was only 1 share in play? That same $10,000 instantly prices GME at $10,000 a share--if you can even get the person holding it to sell!
Since company value is estimated mark-to-market, GME would instantly become rated one of the most (if not the most) valuable companies in the world. This is in no way true, of course, as you could not subsequently sell all the rest of the shares at that price, but as far as a whole bunch of market mechanics and market participants are concerned, they would have to treat it that way until another transaction took place to re-price the company.
So, in the grand scheme of things, in terms of difficulty of initiating what magnitude of a squeeze, the primary factor is locking up actively traded/liquid free float. Also important to keep in mind, locking up the float is only very gradually noticeable until you get very close to locking it all down, and you reach a point where suddenly each fraction of free float being locked up has parabolically greater impact on price volatility, reaching its limit where going from 2 actively traded shares to 1 actively traded share doubles price volatility sensitivity to capital flow by just locking up a single additional share.
So simple, right? Actually, yes. However, don't mistake simple for easy (absolutely not the same thing in this case).

Market Games

So, GME and other high short interest stocks are looked at in two ways by many market participants. On the one hand, you have normal investors and traders who don't really pay attention to it at all, and, if they do, they see it as a tool for price discovery that is otherwise neutral and dampens volatility (people tend to short stocks as price goes up, and cover shorts as price drops, so normal shorting activity is at least in theory supposed to help keep price stable).
Then you have what I'll call market gamers. These are people who are willing to look through the veil of what various mechanics in the market are theoretically intended to accomplish, and just pay attention to what they actually do. There are a number of market mechanics that get really strange in extreme circumstance, and shorting is one of them, as using it to the extreme can absolutely crush a company's share price and actually harm the company badly. The counter to that is the increasing risk of a squeeze, which gets worse with extreme price volatility.
Imagine it this way. Short interest in a stock is like the stock comes with a very strange feature--a closed wormhole portal into the brokerage account of the short position holder that, if slammed with a high enough day or week end price, blows open and sucks their account capital through, and possibly their broker's capital too, until they've patched it closed again with shares of stock they were short.
That's not how you're supposed to look at it, but that's kind of how it actually works in practice. Most wall street types would find it appalling and wrong to think about it that way, but with Millenials and younger jumping in to the market we're talking about generations of people who grew up watching things like people doing 4 minute speed runs through games intended to take~100 hrs to complete, using nothing but the mechanics of the game in ways entirely unintended by the developers. That's kind of what GME is like, from a certain point of view--a speed run through the market, blitzing and confusing everyone watching--throwing a ton of money at hedge funds' short interest until you blow a hole in their account and suck the capital out with the force of a black hole. Of course people are getting jumpy.

Battleground - Strategy and Tactics

In a way, GME has turned into a battleground stock in the minds of many wall street people. Wall Street vs WSB is basically the way it's been depicted in the media, and a number of them seem to be taking it personally.
With a battleground stock I find it helpful to think of it like a literal battleground, but with territory marked out by stock price. It helps you consider the impact on each 'side', what their motives are, and tactical and strategic implications. The reason I think this way is that once a stock becomes a battleground, the issue is no longer about price discovery--it's about proving a point or accomplishing a specific goal, which changes the dynamics of the trade.
In my opinion, the retail strength/defensive line is at the $148 level as mentioned in my previous post analyzing the week. This is based on the majority of volume being in the runup from $30 to $148, which triggered the first squeeze.
My guess is short-side strength hardens at the $350 level, based on that being the level at which the whale plugged the first squeeze. What this means is that you can expect some short-side people to actively short more at that level, possibly following through on momentum, as many of them want to prove a point that GME is a <$20 stock, as stated by a number of them on CNBC. $350 might seem like a low number given Friday's close, but remember that Friday trading was subject to the uptick rule, so the short effectively could not push back, and was instead fighting a rearguard action to bleed the long-side advance as much as possible, and lure them off their strength as much as possible.
Say what? Is there a point to those analogies like that? Why yes, of course, because those analogies are very good mental models for what is going to happen in a short squeeze campaign.
Remember, in the grand scheme of things, the goal of the long side is first and foremost to lock up liquid float. That means buying and holding shares. The question is.. how much will it cost you to move the needle on that, so to speak. the higher the price the short side can force you to pay to lock up float, the longer it'll take and the more expensive it will be. It is also like fighting far from your supply lines in that respect, in that there will be weaker hands mixed in far beyond hard support levels, such that quick pushes by the short side will shake them out, loosening float back up.
How about on the long side? You want the short side to overextend themselves by shorting the price down on momentum, and hopefully get them to keep building up short interest at the lowest price at which they will do so. This means having to have the patience to see the price go as low as you can tolerate before you start losing your key support to despair. Why? Because it means you're buying the shares they throw at you at a lower price (costs less to move the needle on locking up liquid free float) and also that their short position is at a lower average price, lowering the price it will take to trigger a squeeze.
The above is why, in some cases, you will see a sharp dip before the vertical move in a squeeze. You can essentially lure the short side into an ambush by falling back to lower and lower price points, which allows you to continue to lock up free float at ever cheaper prices while the short side thinks it is winning. Once you think you've accumulated enough to prevent covering without a parabolic price move, you spike the price back the other way and it's effectively game over. It can take some time to play out to its conclusion, but that is the essence of it.
Let's make it concrete and put some numbers to it. let's say you need to lock up 10mio more shares for the squeeze (no idea, just using the number for easy math). If you can buy it all skirmishing at the $200 line, you'll pay $2bn to do it. If instead you've extended to the $300 line, you're going to pay $3bn. If you're an alpha-seeking whale, why pay 50% more to accomplish the same thing if you can get away with it? If you recall, I referenced seeing what I thought looked like this type of ticker behavior in my 3rd post.
That being said, you might not mess around with those types of tactics at this point if you think you're already close to blowing up the next short interest holder.
If you think you're close, then you're looking at the most efficient way to make the last tick at trading close as high as possible.
That is very similar to the price action we saw on Friday at the end of the day, as mentioned earlier. If you think about it, if the goal is the have the price at/above a certain point at the end of the day, what is more efficient? Rush in the morning, then have to pay that higher price level for the whole day to maintain it, or wait until later in the day, as late as you think you can manage, and then push to that point at the very last tick?
That, at least, is a very high level view of what you're trying to accomplish, but it gets very complicated in the details. If you're dueling with a good HFT algorithm, you can run into things like the price getting spiked to trigger halts to run out the clock (kind of like fouling someone in basketball), which gets harder in the final minutes of trading due to the wider LU/LD allowances, but still doable, even if you have to do it by sucking price level up (maybe to give you 5 mins to call your buddy at Blackrock to dump shares onto the ticker or something like that).
Another thing to keep in mind. One of the reasons these things can roll on for a long time, is it might not be a one and done blowout (possibly on purpose). Think about it--if you can get people to keep piling short interest in--particularly for emotional reasons, you can ring the register as many times as they are willing to keep doing it to ultimately prove their point. Think of the Citron guy who re-shorted back in around what.. $90 or $100 I think? All because he wanted to make his point when he got blown out at the move off of $30. There are people piling back in right now. Who knows how many times they're willing to reload the short float.
Ok, so this post is much longer than I originally intended anyway, but I think the diagram and some of the descriptions above should provide a good amount of food for thought and discussion. A number of people asked me why I said that price to squeeze was secondary at this point. If you haven't already figured out why, try to think about it, or maybe ask in comments and someone can help with a further discussion.
A couple of final points:

• Assuming the long-side people continue to lock up liquid float, remember that volatility can get greater in BOTH directions. This can mean that you get wiped out if you're somehow still trading GME on margin, as a quick price collapse can get you margin called even if the price quickly rebounds later.
• Greater volatility means you should mentally prepare for big dips as well as swings to the upside. Pre-market and after hours trading don't have circuit breakers, so it could get wild during those times too.
• Also with extreme volatility you end up possibly hitting halts more frequently. After the first frustrating day of this happening with GME I made myself a basic thinkorswim thinkscript study so I'd have a handy reference on whether it looked like this was going to happen. For those of you on ToS, use it on the 1 minute chart. Note that the LULD tolerances are different in first few minutes and toward the end of the day, so you'd have to adjust the parameters (or just keep it in mind). I use it with the step lines vs the default line. If price crosses the guard lines then you're getting close--if it crosses the circuit breaker line then you're about to be or already are getting halted. Here is the code:

​

input TrailingPeriodLength = 5; input CircuitBreakerPercent = 10.0; input GuardMultiplePercent = 70.0; def trlAvg = Average(close, TrailingPeriodLength); plot trailingAverage = trlAvg; plot upperStop = trlAvg * (1 + CircuitBreakerPercent / 100); plot lowerStop = trlAvg * (1 - CircuitBreakerPercent / 100); plot upperRail = trlAvg * (1 + CircuitBreakerPercent / 100 * GuardMultiplePercent / 100); plot lowerRail = trlAvg * (1 - CircuitBreakerPercent / 100 * GuardMultiplePercent / 100); 

Also, I got a comment in another post telling me to get a job lol. Actually I have one, so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post from Monday forward. As I've mentioned in a few comments on prior posts, I actually am not active on social media normally. I just created this account to try to help people use this probably once-in-a-lifetime event and the intense interest it's generating to help people learn to become better investors and traders. I'll try to keep posting, but maybe not as regularly, and probably shorter (which I know some of you will be happy about :)).
Hope you all have a good rest of the weekend. Good luck in the Market on Monday

Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.

1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.

In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:

• Alan Attal - the previous COO and CMO of Chewy (2011 - 2018)
• Jim Grube - the previous CFO of Chewy (2015 - 2018)

He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.

1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
   1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
   2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
   3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
   1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
   2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
   3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
   4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.

So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.

1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
   1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.

If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN

In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount

1. GME’s physical business
2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM

and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:
​
Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today
​
Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S
​
Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.
​

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.

1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
   1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
   1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
   2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
   1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
   2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.

With the gloating we have seen by Cohen, the questions around what will happen as far as regulation given the strings the hedge funds can pull, I think its important that we give some ammunition to those in power who might be fighting on our side in Congress to show what us normal people do with this money, instead of the billionaires who let it ferment in their war chests and tell us to keep investing and we'll get as rich as them.

• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l667hb/i_want_to_thank_you_guys_for_saving_my_best/
  • Dog surgery
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l9g4ff/after_a_decade_of_corporate_exploitation_and/
  • Sick leave now start own business
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6617c/i_can_now_write_my_mom_a_check_and_put_my_siste
  • Sister through medical treatment
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l78m9p/thank_you_for_this_moment_youve_given_me_purpose/
  • Helped from depression after losing wife
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l67bf8/thank_you_all_my_wife_was_diagnosed_with_ms/
  • Wife diagnosed MS, money to make up for med costs
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l01504/gme_gang_if_youre_up_a_lot_also_consider_a_thank/
  • Letters with $100 bills for GME employees
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l9b2my/thanks_amc_and_all_you_tards_i_started_saving/
  • Normal guy saving for retirement
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6azxw/i_officially_have_made_enough_money_on_gme_to_pay/
  • Just paying off their credit card, after 5k in debt
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6wi91/told_my_mom_im_paying_for_her_lasik_surgery_thank/
  • Mom’s lasik surgery
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6b5my/gnus_thank_you_for_helping_wsb_i_have_a_baby/
  • Expecting parent preparing for the baby
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4pdm6/thank_you_wsb_i_can_now_pay_my_rent/
  • Paying rent
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l66v8m/thank_you_guys_so_much/
  • Guy who beat cancer getting another win in life
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6gzp6/im_going_to_be_able_to_buy_my_car_new_tires_afte
  • New tires
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6zzsp/thank_you/
  • Teacher, father of two just getting by
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l68jhm/i_know_my_gains_arent_as_impressive_as_some_but_i/
  • Pay off debt
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6c6ov/i_just_want_to_say_thank_you_from_the_bottom_of/
  • Losing job
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6fie8/an_elder_millennial_and_newcomer_retard_has_some/
  • Mothers retirement and prescriptions
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l67tl2/covid_nurse_veteran_thanks_you_while_i_might_not/
  • Covid nurse on medical leave
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6bdhe/wallstreetbets_thank_you/
  • Parents mortgage
• u/deepspacefine_ posted below that they're using the money to take time off work for their newborn. Keep it away from Mets owner, goblins eat babies
• u/justliest posted below https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-earns-top-marks-human-rights-campaigns-2021-corporate
  • headline from the article:For the eighth consecutive year, GameStop earns 100 on the Human Rights Campaign Foundation’s annual assessment of LGBTQ workplace equality index
  • This is the company the hedge funds tried to run to the ground
• https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l8azdz/guy_living_in_his_truck_update_600_130k_in_16/
  • A guy straight up living in his truck can now afford a house. CNBC's news makes it seems like people like this are stealing from the hedgies. We're trying to survive
• u/INeedAnAdultHalp below paying off CC debt and their car, as opposed to a 3rd mansion
• u/V0rt0s Invisalign
• u/gtstick wedding and house repairs
• https://www.reddit.com/WSBGivesBack/comments/l9rdim/going_to_all_my_local_gamestop_to_hook_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
  • giving back gift cards to gamestop employees
• Chamath making 500k giving to Dave Portnoy’s fund
• Kevin O'Leary's comment to the dumbass William Galvin who has hedge fund managers hands up his ass playing him like a puppet, regarding millions of americans learning about the stock market

I got this all just from this link: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/search/?q=thank&restrict_sr=1&t=weekThere were many more there, I just have work in the morning. What I'm trying to show is the good that comes from beating the hedge funds, why the regulation should be stopping the wall street entrenched elites, not us little guys, and more, that this country has some huge problems if it relies on `once in a lifetime` stock market situations for people to get lasik and medical surgeries done, or pay fucking rent.
​
Please put in the comments any other things you have seen or done yourself, and let's give people a reason to be on our side!
Edit: going to bed now but I’ll update the post as people add in more comments in the morning. Let’s keep it going!
​
Disclaimer:
This is political advice, not financial. Vote according to who helps the individual Americans and doesn't take money from the billionaires.

https://steam.cryotank.net/wp-content/gallery/slaythespire/Slay-the-Spire-01-HD.png
Slay the Spire (StS) has finally arrived to Android! For two years many of us dreamed for this legendary game to be accessible on their mobile devices, and finally the day has come. No need to talk about how awesome this game is, how it basically started a new genre of card-based dungeon crawlers (UPD: or roguelike deck-builders, if you prefer the term), and even about how well or poor it works on Android hardware in its current state (there will be lots of these posts during the days to come). What I wanted to talk about is the impact this game had on (specifically) mobile industry and how other developers were able to utilize this innovative formula in their own products.
Personally, I am somewhat glad that StS release was delayed that much. This allowed a lot of "clones" to be spawned, many of which I enjoyed playing. Some of them appear to be straight rip-offs, but others introduced many fresh ideas of their own, some even surpassing the predecessor's greatness. What the heck am I talking about and how is this even possible will be revealed to you, should you decide to stay on a bit and read through the article below.

General info

First and foremost, let's clarify the important thing: card based dungeon crawlers are not Collectible Card Games (CCGs). Even though they share the same ideas, and some of them (StS included) even have a feature to permanently improve starting cards, or a mode to play with pre-constructed decks, this is not the case for the genre in general. There is no place for multiplayer and PvP battles here: a turn-down for the most, but an undeniable advantage for the rest - only though-out puzzle-like single-player experience which we can pause at any moment and continue when the time is appropriate. Thus, there will never be troubles with downtime, matchmaking, ratings, overpowered builds and other PvP stuff, as there will never be a satisfaction of crushing your opponents with the power of your mighty intellect... The fun of discovering interesting synergies between various card combinations is still present, though.
With this being said, let's quickly look through the core features of the genre, which will be relevant for almost every game we review below: - we must explore a dungeon, which (usually, but not necessarily) consists of three floors with increasing difficulty; - we have limited control over the order in which to face the challenges; - there is a powerful boss in the end of each floor; - we battle using deck of cards, usually drawing new cards from deck to hand each turn; - there is a limitation on how many cards we can play during our turn; - we start with a weak basic deck, but get new cards as rewards for fighting enemies; - there is a possibility to permanently remove (weak) cards from the deck; - successful gameplay strategies revolve around utilizing the synergies between different cards; - there are several character classes, each with their own cards and tactics; - there are often additional items to acquire in the dungeon, providing bonuses and emphasizing specific types of play;
Before Slay the Spire (StS) came out, there was another card-based dungeon crawler called Dream Quest (DQ), which considered by many to be the first game of the genre (at least the first one to make a significant impact). Not sure if the former drew inspiration from the latter, but certain parallels can easily be drawn: in fact, all of the features mentioned in the list above are valid for DQ the same way as it is for StS. The rich plethora of card based dungeon crawlers (both PC/Console and mobile) originated from some combination of the two.
StS, however, can not be considered a clone of DQ, as it introduced a lot of original ideas and spawned its own line of descendants. It is always interesting to analyze each new title to see which of two games was the biggest inspiration, and to group them accordingly. For me the main criteria lies in the core difference in battle system: - in StS, enemies (usually multiple) show their intentions at the beginning of each turn, so we know what to expect and what to play against; - in DQ, the enemy (usually single) draws and plays cards the same way as we do, often using the same abilities and synergies we ourselves can use.
Introductions aside, let's finally get to the interesting part - the games! (Note: Games are listed in alphabetical order to not give any privileges to one over another. For my personal preferences see the comment section).

Dream Quest clones

Call of Lophis takes us on a grim journey through infested lands full of deadly monsters, dangerous traps, and one of the most ridiculous card art I have ever seen. It's surprising to see how dark fantasy elements combine with the humor and gags this game presents. From the gameplay point of view, there is enough card variety and interesting synergies, but it will take a long time to reach the interesting parts. Really: this game just does not know when to end, forcing new and new dungeon locations onto us with basically the same monsters and same approaches to dealing with them over and over. Its the boss battles which crank the difficulty up to over 9000, and if we don't have the right deck by the time we reach them, there is nothing we can do to pull it off. Plus there is some shady business going on with monetization schemes, where even paid version of the game makes us spend money to unlock additional classes and grind a lot to buy permanent improvements. Only truly dedicated players will be interested in dealing with all this nonsense. [...] UPD: Haven't checked on it for a long time - maybe the situation improved somehow.
Crimson Deep is still in early alpha and was not updated for a long time. But the development hasn't stopped, and there is a new major release approaching in the nearest future. It makes no sense to talk about the game till then: the version in the store is too raw to provide any significant gameplay experience, but it would be interesting to see where it goes in the end.
Dimension of Dream is probably the only game that has the same grid-based dungeon layout as DQ itself. This time with full 3D and a possibility to fight only limited set of enemies before facing the final boss (which allows to moderate difficulty as we go, either defeating tougher enemies with better rewards, or to save HP and fight only the easy ones). This game has one of the most interesting battle systems and 6 truly unique classes with deep complex strategies unlike anything we have ever seen (not only the cards themselves, but the order in which we play them greatly affects the outcome). Unfortunately, the English version was pulled from Google Play, leaving only Chinese version for Asian people to enjoy. UPD: Apparently, the game was re-released under different publisher with the title Dreaming Dimension, so there you have it. [...]
Meteorfall: Journeys offers the streamlined approach to dungeon crawling, where all our decisions boil down to Reigns-like "swipe left / swipe right" operation: picking the path, encounter resolutions, and even battles are simplified to utilize this binary choice mechanic. But don't worry: these specifics do not affect the gameplay, still providing enough strategic depth to appeal even to hardcore players. Add here a neat visual style, lots of character classes and their variations, cool card combos, and you get a true masterpiece, which is Meteorfall. [...]
Night of the Full Moon offers a fresh take on a fairy tale of Red Riding Hood, but adding darker elements to it (including werewolves, zombies, mad scientists and cursed cultists). It demonstrates an amazing production quality with top-tier art, beautiful audio support, and intriguing storytelling. Gameplay wise, we have the closest thing to DQ, safe for the grid-based dungeon maps, which were changed to just picking the encounter out of available three. Some people may argue that the game does not offer enough strategic variety, only suggesting a single best build for each class, but you will still get different runs due to the randomness of card and power-up drops. Another argument of it being too easy is completely nullified on higher difficulty levels. Wish the story would develop in a different direction, though. [...]
Spellsword Cards: Origins provides the gameplay similar to the Night of the Full moon, but focuses more on role-playing character development part. Aside from choosing a class, we also get to pick race with unique traits, and a school of magic, greatly affecting which cards will be available to us during the run. The problem here, though, is that monster encounters do not demonstrate a lot of variety, forcing us to fight the same enemies over and over, and the difficulty is rather high, with starting cards doing almost nothing and enemies quickly run out of hand with their devastating attacks, whereas good cards are hard to come by, and even then you will still be devastated on later stages. [...] UPD: Or maybe I am just bad at this game (welcome to comment section for valid strategy suggestions).

Slay the Spire clones

Blood Card offers a unique possibility to construct the dungeon ourselves, providing a pool of encounters of different types: regular monsters, elite monsters, events and shops. We pick a desired encounter from the pool, deal with it and then move on to the next one. Another interesting feature is that our health is defined by the number of cards in draw pile, which limits our tactical possibilities, but is compensated by the fact that we get multiple copies of cards as rewards for fighting enemies. There are a lot of interesting mechanics related to moving cards between various piles, as well as other neat features (like: the Death inevitably arrives in three turns and starts whacking everyone on the field with increasing persistence), but I'll leave them for you to discover on your own.
Card Crusade seemed like a cool idea of mixing classic "roguelike" dungeon crawling with its "deck-based" counterpart, where we explore the dungeon the same way as we do it in Hack, Angband, Pixel Dungeon and other similar games, but use cards to fight actual enemies. In reality though, this implementation just adds a useless abstraction, as the adventuring does not provide any tactical benefits and is only there to inter-connect battle sequences (heck, even breaking pots and chests does not give us any coin, of which developers themselves warn us at the very beginning!). The cards are not very interesting, with next to none cool synergies, and new classes (which should be unlocked by performing specific actions on previous runs) do not provide any major difference. [...]
Card Quest takes us on an epic journey through fantasy lands, where we will perform great deeds as one of the classic RPG hero classes (fighter, wizard, rogue, ranger), each with their own equipment and fighting disciplines. The interesting part is that the cards we use during runs are defined by said equipment, and if we find some new pieces during our adventure, we get to keep them for further runs. Also worth noting that defense cards are played not during our turn, but during enemy turn, which requires us to plan ahead a bit. This being said, the game is extremely hard - it will take a lot of unsuccessful tries to finally reach the end. But the variety of dungeons and possible builds will keep us occupied for long.
Dungeon Tales for a long time was the closest, yet simplified copy of StS mechanics (up to similar cards and gaming strategies), but without certain elaborate features, like upgrading cards or using potions. The basics are left intact though: we still build our deck along the way and face the powerful boss in the end. There are only two characters available yet, but each has a couple of viable builds, so it can keep us invested for quite some time. [...]
Endless Abyss is a close StS clone with very similar character classes (only two so far) and a lot of cards with exactly the same effects. Graphically the game looks very good, but angry monetization, lots of grinding, and forced ads make it almost impossible to fully enjoy. [...]
Heroes of Abyss is a predecessor to Endless Abyss with basically the same core gameplay, but very simplified dungeon crawling part. There is no floor map with choosing our path, nor there are elaborate adventure events: just a series of battles with the boss in the end. The spoils we get after each battle go into improving our starting deck and unlocking new difficulty modes with higher rewards. What makes the game unusual, is that we chose the preferred build right from the beginning with appropriate set of starting cards, without the need to rely on the randomness of card drops. It may be interesting to unlock and compare all the 6 available builds, but once the task is done, there is almost no reason to play the game further.
Heroes Journey provides a different setting for a change: this time we will play as space explorers, who crash landed on an alien planet. Thus, instead of familiar swords and bows, we will be wielding blasters and energy shields: the rest remains the same, up to the majority of cards straight up copied from StS. Unfortunately, this innovative idea was completely ruined by repetitive grinding and angry monetization, forcing player to make dozens of identical runs with the same small card pool, until something adequate is unlocked. Oh, and the game is long abandoned by the developers.
Pirates Outlaws is an amazing rework of original StS ideas in a pirate setting with some changes to gameplay mechanics, such as introducing persistent charges needed to play certain cards, and different buff/debuff statuses that replace each other. There are also some questionable features, such as ship stamina that deteriorates over the course of the journey and leads to game over if not repaired in time, or a quest system, where quests can not be completed in parallel, but instead picking the new quest resets your progress in the current one. Some may also argue that new classes take long to grind for, or expensive to pay for, but with permanent booster pack this should not be a problem. Anyway, the game is highly recommended for any StS fan. [...]
Rogue Adventure offers a twist to usual mechanic: our hand is limited by 4 cards, but each time we use one of them, a new card is immediately drawn to its place, thus we never run out of cards to play. Non-starting cards are common for all classes, but are grouped by type (or race), giving huge synergies depending on how many similar cards we have. Aside from this, the game offers diverse gameplay by providing a lot of different classes, each with its own unique strategies and dynamics, and some interesting items to work around. The developers constantly provide updates with bug fixes and new content, but be warned that new mechanics may break what you are already accustomed for.
Royal Booty Quest started as a straight rip-off from StS with the same classes and abilities, and even cards having the same names. And absolutely atrocious pixelated visuals, which were not possible to look at without eyes bleeding out. Over time, though, it developed its own unique mechanics and interesting card combinations, but the art style did not get any better. However, if this is not a problem, the game is enjoyable to an extent, but since it was not updated for a long time, I doubt it will keeps anyone's interest for long. [...]
Tavern Rumble adds an unusual strategic element - a 3x3 grid, on each units and enemies are placed. The core gameplay remains the same (we still see what opponents are planning to do each turn and adjust our own strategy accordingly), but the addition of the grid introduces another tactical layer: not only we should maximize the damage output, but also plan the layout for our troops to provide the effective delivery of said output, while at the same time establish enough defense to minimize the damage to ourselves. There are a lot of cards and classes to play around, different play modes and a lot of features that are still being constantly added to the game. Some may argue about simplistic pixel graphics or long repetitive grinding, but it is easy to unlock everything within reasonable amount of time, even without paying. [...]

Other Games

Of course, my criteria does not work 100% of the time, as some games are way too different from anything else to confidently enroll them into one of the categories. They either demonstrate traits of both, or implement entirely unique mechanics of their own (which I like the most), while still maintaining the basic dungeon crawling ideas (so a lot of the games you might think of will not end up in the list). What I have in mind is the following:
Dungeon Reels removes the cards from card-based dungeon crawler - why bother, right? Instead, it provides some kind of a slot machine, where each turn three rows spin independently to pick available actions based on what slots we have in our reel. Winning battles awards us with new, better slots to add, each with their own specifics and synergies. Enemies also randomize their moves with slots of their own, but the most satisfying mechanic is the possibility to spin a jackpot with three identical slots for some powerful effect. It is interesting to see this concept developed further, but the game has not been updated for a long time.
Iris and the Giant takes us on journey through imaginary world, inspired by Ancient Greek mythology. Each battle takes place on a grid, where various enemies advance in huge numbers. We play a card from our hand, usually dealing damage to nearest enemy, and then everyone who is still standing and can reach us deals damage in return. There are cards that target multiple enemies at once, as well as ways to play more than one card during our turn, so most of the time we will be deciding which card to play at which moment. The deck has limited size, and if it becomes empty we lose, so new cards should be constantly acquired. There are a lot of interesting mechanics to discover, but the game is very hard and luck based, requiring a lot of trial-and-error to finally reach the end. [...]
Phantom Rose Scarlet has the same basic core, but with completely innovative battle system, not seen in any other game. On each turn there are four positions for cards to be played in strict order, where two of them are randomly filled with opponent's cards, and the remaining two are left for us to fill. Instead of drawing the hand, we have our entire deck available right away, but playing cards puts them on a cooldown, which does not reset between battles, so we constantly face the strategic choice of playing our best cards right away or keep them for later. The game is in active development, providing new mechanics and further developing the story, which is quite captivating here. [...]
Void Tyrant is a bit of a stretch, but still a "card based dungeon crawler", in which we basically play BlackJack against our enemies by dealing card with numbers from 1 to 6 one-by-one from our deck until we stand or bust. Whoever has the highest value wins and deals damage to the loser. There are various supporting cards on top of this mechanic, allowing us to either jinx the outcome in our favor, or to perform various other metagame manipulations. The only downside of the game is the lack of content, as it quickly runs out of interesting things, and since it was not updated for a long time, it is unlikely that anything new will be added in the future. [...]

Conclusion

As you see, there is a lot to play besides StS, so even if you are not hyped by its long-awaited Android release, but appreciate a good intellectual dungeon crawler, you will find something to suit your needs. I hope, even with StS release, new games of the genre will continue appearing on mobile phones, and I will gladly review them and add to the list. If you know any hidden gems (or even trash) that was not highlighted in this article, please share the names and/or links in the comments. I am also open to any discussions on the topic, as I am obviously able to talk a lot about my favorite genre.
Good luck to everyone in all your endeavors.
P.S. I am well aware of games like Dungeon Cards, Card Adventure, Dungeon Faster, Meteorfall: Krumitz Tale, Card Thief, Maze Machina, Cube Card, Card Hog, Fisherman, Relics of the Fallen and other "grid-based puzzles", but do not consider them to be a part of the "family".

Fellow apes,
I believe we are in a very interesting position right now, and we still face the very real possibility of seeing a massive short squeeze on GME. Full disclosure: 11 shares @ $180 average, I am poor college ape. This is also not financial advice, I am dumb ape.
This is going to be a long post. I know you apes hate reading, but I think this post is going to contain some very helpful and reassuring information for many of us, and I encourage all ape to try their best to read. TLDR at bottom for silly monke.
Let's take a moment to consider where we are with respect to GME, and rethink all the events that have just unfolded over the last few weeks. Starting early January, we saw the price of GME hovering just below the $20 mark. GME had been floating around the $10 - $20 range since about mid October. As GME started to increase in popularity on WSB, due to rumors around Ryan Cohen's interest in the company, the price continued to increase. During this time, short sellers began rapidly opening positions because they believed GameStop was headed to bankruptcy due to the shift away from physical retail stores, and because they were betting the hype around GME would eventually die off and the share price would fall. On January 11th, Ryan Cohen gained a seat on the board, held a 13% stake in the company, and the share price jumped almost 20% to $20.65. This is an important date and an important price in our story. The January 15th official short interest report stated 61,780,000 shares had been sold short. On the 15th, the share price was about $35. This is a crucial piece of information to consider. Short Interest is reported twice monthly, so the last report before January 15th was from December 31st, and the next report won't be issued until February 9th. The next report will show short interest up to January 29th. Keep that in mind, I'll come back to this point later.
Back to the January 15th report. 61.78 million shares had been shorted at prices less than $35. Every single short of those 61.78 million was betting the price would be less than $35, and it's more likely that most were shorted around the $15 - $20 mark. I don't have exact numbers, but for the sake of simplicity and also conservatism, I am going to assume these 61.78 million shorts were for $30. These shorts would only make profit if the price was to go below $30. For ape who STILL doesn't understand what shorting a stock is, please read this. On January 15th, at least 130% of the float had been sold short. Yes this is possible, and does not necessarily indicate wrong doing by hedge funds or market makers. The January 15th report serves as one of the main catalysts for the giant price leap from $35 to $483. The report was released on January 27th, and the share price hit $375 the same day, followed by a peak at $483 on the 28th. Since then, the price has decreased all the way back down to $65 at the time of writing.
This is where we get into the main point of my thesis, and why I believe we should not be worried about this massive drop in price. My argument: MOST short positions from the January 15th report have NOT covered yet. Why would they have? What we saw from January 11th to 28th was a run up fueled entirely by hype and a couple of gamma squeezes. The short squeeze did NOT happen. But it will. Hedges are still better off paying their interest payments on their short positions than covering millions of shares for prices over $300.
The hedge funds and other players were able to drive the price down from $483 to $65 in less than a week. Regardless of the illegal actions they took to make this happen, it is still the reality we face. Their biggest win was hitting a big stop-loss raid when the price went down to $250. The price was forced down not just because of "short laddering", but because they were able to hit psychological prices were many holders had set stop losses. $250 stop losses dropped down to $225, which dropped down to $200, etc. Shares were sold at these prices, not to the shorts looking to cover, but to other retail investors and some institutions hoping for the eventual short squeeze.
The hedge funds knew they would be able to do this. It didn't even take that long. In 6 days they had brought the price down over $400. So why in the world would they have covered even a single share above $100?? Answer: they didn't. They are waiting to bring the price down to an acceptable level, buying far OTM calls, and letting the hype die down a bit before they even begin to cover. It really is the only logical thing for them to do.
Here's a simplified version of what I believe has happened so far. I shorted a stock at $10, because I believed the price would drop down to $2. I'm paying 50% interest annually. Even if it takes an entire year to hit $2, I will still profit $3. Unfortunately for me though, instead of the price dropping, it gains upward momentum and hits $20. Interest payments are a bit higher now, but I still believe the price is going to sink. I double up on shorts. All of a sudden, a huge wave of hype blindsides me, and the price hits $50. This triggers a gamma squeeze, as calls issued far OTM were suddenly expiring ITM, and MMs have to cover these calls, further forcing the price up to $80. Now I am in a really bad spot, but it's not over for me yet. My original short position has not been margin called, and I am still under no obligation to hedge up to the new price. I know the gamma squeeze causes a temporary increase in demand, and that apes have a low attention span and the massive hype will eventually die off. The price will not drop back down to $10 though, since there's new support at $50, so I need to come up with a game plan. I wait for the price to come back down to $60, and maybe do some shady shit to get it all the way back down to $30. I know this is probably the lowest price I can get, so I'm now ready to start covering my shorts. Being a smart monke myself, I know that when I start to cover, the price will begin to jump up again. Currently I'm in the red, but what if I can offset my losses with calls? I see there are far OTM calls at a strike price of $100 being offered for cheap. I buy them up. Then I start covering. The price hits $150. I cover to an acceptable level, sell my calls for profit, and short the stock all the way back down. Short squeeze over, I make money.
This is what we are waiting for now. The hedges are waiting for the price to sink enough before they start covering. They are buying calls at $800 that expire on February 19th. Remember what I was saying about the short interest being released only twice a month? This is when it becomes a super important piece of circumstantial evidence. The next report will be released sometime between the 9th and the 14th. It's going to show that the old shorts have not yet covered, and the price will start rising. The shorts will finally start to cover, the squeeze will happen, they will sell their calls for profit, and then short it on the way back down. During the last run up to $480, we saw a dip in the overall market, likely due to people selling their positions to jump into GME, and also from MMs having to hedge ITM calls. On February 19th, there are THOUSANDS of puts expiring on SPY. I think the hedges are expecting another dip in the overall market for this date, and are doing everything they can to offset their losses.
Some may argue that the shorts already followed through on this game plan on the way up to $483. I do not believe this could have been the case. First of all, if they had purchased large amounts of calls they expected to expire ITM, there would have been no reason to force the price back down prematurely. Before brokerages blocked buying on the 28th, we were positioned to break $500. If shorts had already positioned themselves with calls to offset their losses, there would have been no need to frantically halt buying. Second, on the 27th and 28th, there were no shares available to short. Hedges would not have been able to capture profits on the way back down. The current drop in price is working in the favor of hedges in three different ways. First, calls far OTM are very cheap, and hedge funds are able to scoop up millions of dollars worth of options that they will later be able to sell or execute for profit. During the first peak, the furthest OTM call available were too expensive and to NTM for hedges to offset their losses. If my theory is correct, hedges stand to gain substantially on their far OTM calls expiring Feb. 19th. Second, the extreme price drop means there are tons of shares available for hedges to short now. During the last rise, there were nowhere near enough shares for hedges to short as the price dipped. Finally, it is obvious that shorts are better off covering at $50 rather than $480. The current situation we face will allow shorts to cover their positions, profit off their OTM calls, and further offset losses by shorting on the way down. I believe it is illogical to think that hedges would have covered for a loss. Citadel did not give 2.75b to Melvin to flush down the toilet. They are expecting Melvin to at least break even, if not profit on this whole game.
TL;DR: I believe that hedge funds who shorted GME before January 15th for under $35 have not even begun to cover. They are waiting for the hype to die off and the price to sink enough, while loading up on far OTM calls to offset their losses when the short squeeze does finally happen. I am buying more GME when my deposit clears and holding. This is not financial advice. I am very dumb and delusional ape and could very well be entirely wrong about this.
I'm on desktop right now and idk how to insert emojis, but obligatory rocketship.emoji x 10
My apologizes if this is the unemployment line, ape was trying to get Wendy's.

Hi Everyone! I kinda got carried away here, but I was inspired by u/HGProductions00's legendary selflessness to put together a list of stuff that I've learned over the last 6 months of playing and following this sub. I don't claim to be an expert or anything, but I think everything below is pretty well agreed on by the community here and has been independently verified by yours truly. But definitely correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, and I'll fix it in the original. Also, there’s an official FAQ page here: this is just a bonus YSK
Stuff Everyone Should Know

• Your ranked group isn't directly competing with you; each player has their own unique group
• AI opponents with badges are generally better, but you can “strip” badges by playing the same course multiple times (~3-5 reps)
• Drivers are most important for score, then gliders, then karts [but see u/baller83388312’s comment below; essentially, karts become more important once you can consistently maintain your combos]
• When choosing your DKG, 99% of the time tier matters most, then level; only then does type--i.e., HE, super, standard--come into play (scroll down on the DKG card to find the exact stats)
• After you’ve run the same course enough times, wins will stop adding to your player level (course-capped)
• Once that happens, though, you can restart--using the gear icon in the upper-right corner--indefinitely with effectively no drawbacks (as long as you come in first or second at the end) [edit: this varies somewhat by course]
• DKG levels are the single most important limiting factor when it comes to getting a higher score
• Sgt Spike is the actual greatest, and he adores Bowser Jr

Ranked

• [Your ranked group won’t generally be in the same tier as you; they can be 10 tiers above you or more]
• [You can find your ranked opponents’ highest tier (as well as their drivers and track scores) by clicking on their nameplate in the rankings and going to “Player Info”]
• [When you move up a tier, your ranked group tends to be much harder the following week]
• Building a big combo is pretty much the name of the game when it comes to ranked scores
• Every coin you hit extends your combo and gets you points; red coins count as two
• Lots of other items on the course will also extend your combo if you hit them (e.g. pumpkins, cones, etc)
• Going through your "Actions Performed" on the finish-line screen can be really helpful / eye-opening
• “Non-stop” combos don’t get any more points than regular combos of the same amount
• After x16, your combo point bonus stays the same
• Breaking your combo at beginning or end is ok; breaking it in the middle makes you cry (and probably restart if you're course-capped)
• Item tickets should really only be used when you think it’ll make a substantial difference in ranked
• Item tickets can save your combo in all sorts of disaster situations, esp blue shells
• Mushrooms are good to extend combo on demand, but they don’t protect you from getting hit
• Mushrooms can also open up all sorts of shortcuts, but some shortcuts aren’t worth taking
• [Mushrooms have all sorts of other uses too, per u/pHLoVinsanitY’s comment]
• Bullet bill will probably kill your combo
• [Super horns can take out all sorts of stuff, including goombas, pipes, blue shells and bloopers; doing so gets you points and extends your combo]
• Auto item is generally a good idea for grinding ranked, so you don't accidentally miss a frenzy chance
• 200cc isn’t necessarily better for ranked, but 150cc almost always beats 100cc
• Front running is usually best for ranked, because you get coins and don’t get blown up as much
• Manual drift will definitely get you more points for ranked, but it takes a lot of work to learn
• You can only get pink sparks (for ultra-) on manual drift [or by using the drift button]

Frenzies

• Each run has a maximum of 3 frenzies, and you can't get frenzies back to back
• Frenzies are capped at 12 actions (1 per second) even if you button mash like a fiend, but you get extra actions if the action succeeds (only 90% sure about this)
• The most reliable frenzies are coin and mushroom, because you get both a frenzy action and a second successful action for every use
• The frenzies with the most potential have multi-impacts per action, so coinbox and giant banana (but you need a floor and some luck to reach max potential); honorable mention goes to bowser shell and boomerang, in the right circumstance
• Multi-hit frenzy actions (e.g. Lightning, Squid, Lucky 7) still only add one additional successful action per frenzy action (not 100% sure how that works for Lucky 7 + though)
• Gliders don’t increase frenzy chance for their item
• Drifting doesn't count while you're in a Frenzy, so focus on hitting coins, other drivers, and destroyable obstacles (like pipes, thwomps, and goombas); [you can use the frenzy to charge up a drift for once it’s over, though]
• You’re more likely to get a frenzy as your position worsens, and certain items (lightning, blue shell, bullet bill) only come near the back of the pack

Resources

• Generally, it's best to save rubies until you can clear a pipe
• But if you get a good pull early on, you can and should reset (unless you’re going for something specific)
• Don’t buy HEs in the daily shop, especially if they’re over 10k; it’s almost never worth it [but see u/phoenix14830’s comment]
• [That said, you should do whatever you can to get at least one coinbox driver, because...well, Coinbox is crazy OP. It extends your combo, gets lots of points, and gives the highest potential frenzy in the game.]
• You can convert rubies into coins (through coin rush), but not coins into rubies; so save your rubies except in emergencies
• Once you’ve saved up some coins for emergencies (~10k?) start buying cheap super items [starting with Bob-Omb Parafoil, Peach Parasol, Flower Glider, and Koopa Parachute; then DK, Bowser, and Toad. Also, normal Lemmy] so you can level them up asap
• 50 and 100cc is great for grinding DKG xp, coins, and event tokens [as is auto-mode]
• You can always get first in auto-mode if you blow the whistle once right before the first item box
• Always do 10-pulls, unless you’re at the bottom of the pipe (or just poor and desperate)
• Save your level boost tickets for emergencies in ranked, and even then try not to use them on low-coverage DKGs
• Once you clear all the standard challenges (there are five levels for both sets) rubies get a lot harder to come by...

Multiplayer

• You can get 100 coins every day by waiting for multiplayer.
• Multiplayer runs still collect DKG xp, it just doesn’t show you
• [You can also collect grand stars from multiplayer, even from cups that are ‘under construction’]
• If you want to win multiplayer, turn off auto-item and save items for the right moment:
• Always keep a shell behind you to guard if you can; bananas work too
• Lightning and bullets can be super powerful from a 1-3 place
• Green shells do have a smart bounce, so watch out for that... or use it
• Gold pass is required to go from A to the S ranks
• [If you’re trying to gain rank, stick to standard races until you’re ready to rank up to S; it’s much harder to gain in Gold]
• After you get S, the next rank just adds +1 (up to +6)
• Once you’ve got S, though, you won’t gain or lose ground when you play Standard

MarioKartTour

• This sub is pretty chill, so don’t be a dick
• Sgt Spike regularly puts out DKG rankings (e.g. here's the most recent Driver Kart Glider)
• Here’s a course coverage spreadsheet [and here’s another].
• City courses are pretty rare and Rock Rock Mountain apparently no longer exists :( [I stand corrected, o glorious day 🎉]
• Always check this sub for data analysis before you pull a pipe (e.g.)
• The weekly questions thread (here) is incredibly useful and pretty reliable.
• If you want friends to send you coins (or not), there are two separate threads for that too here

Spending Money

• If you wait until the second week of the tour, you can get two tours’ gold pass rewards with your 14-day free trial.
• If you want to maximize efficiency, don't start a gold pass at the start of a tour unless you need it for ranked; if you time it right, you only need [6.5] gold passes per year to get all the gifts
• When you see a whale (aka big spender), thank them for subsidizing your fun (while quietly cursing them under your breath)
• The second ranked cup of a tour will usually correspond to a purchasable banner
• [first week spotlights get boosted in the second course of every cup and second week spotlight in the third course of every cup]
• F2P (free to play) can absolutely be as much fun as spending, just slower; the gold pass is a happy medium imo

That's all I've got! If you have anything else you'd like to add or any corrections, feel free to throw it in the comments. Have fun!
Edit: I’ll put corrections and additions in brackets. Thanks for the feedback!
Second Edit: My first award! Thank you kind stranger :)
Edit the Third: And Silver?!? You guys are the best...
Final Edit, just to say: Wow! I tried to do with this post what Sgt Spike does with practically all of his posts (that is, to acknowledge and respond to as many comments as possible) and boy is it exhausting! Not complaining at all--I honestly had soo much fun--but I cannot imagine doing this week in, week out. So I just want to say, Sgt Spike, if you read this: I have so much more awe for what you do for this sub now, and you should feel absolutely justified in taking time off whenever you need it. I said legendary in the original post, but I truly didn’t understand how heroic your labor has been. Mad respect.